California Republicans are sometimes thought as of an endangered species.
However largely via the efforts of former Speaker Kevin McCarthy — a Bakersfield native who stepped down from the Home final December — the GOP in recent times has been capable of claw again some energy within the Golden State by profitable a set of highly-competitive swing districts in areas the place the celebration nonetheless retains a large base of help.
And it’s in these districts, from the Central Valley to the outskirts of Los Angeles and all the way down to Orange County, the place the Home majority will doubtless be gained or misplaced in 2024.
Republicans presently maintain a slim 218-seat majority, a precarious place for the celebration because the 213-member Home Democratic Caucus works to flip the chamber this yr.
Here is a have a look at the six California congressional districts held by Republicans — 5 of which had been gained by President Joe Biden in 2020 — which may have an outsized position through which celebration holds the speaker’s gavel in 2025:
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Younger Kim, fortieth District
First elected to the Home: 2020
Kim, a former member of the California State Meeting and onetime aide to former congressman Ed Royce, first ran for Congress in 2018 in hopes of succeeding her longtime boss. However she misplaced to Gil Cisneros in what was a banner yr for Democrats, particularly within the suburbs.
With the robust backing of McCarthy and different GOP leaders, Kim ran once more in 2020 and defeated Cisneros in a rematch, turning into one of many first Korean-American ladies to serve within the Home. After the 2020 Census, her congressional district, which now contains components of Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino counties, was reconfigured into one that will have narrowly backed Biden.
Kim gained reelection by practically 14 factors in 2022, however Democrats see the competition as winnable. She’ll now tackle retired Orange County hearth captain Joe Kerr in November.
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Michelle Metal, forty fifth District
First elected to the Home: 2020
In 2020, Metal, a former Orange County supervisor, narrowly defeated then-Democratic Rep. Harley Rouda in a district that had lengthy favored Republicans. (Two years earlier, Rouda flipped the district by defeating then-Rep. Dana Rohrabacher, a conservative fixture in Congress.)
Metal has staked out socially-conservative positions on points like abortion and same-sex marriage, and in 2022, she gained reelection over Democratic nominee Jay Chen by practically 5 factors.
However Biden would have gained the present configuration of Metal’s district, which incorporates components of Orange and Los Angeles counties, by 6 factors.
Within the November election, Metal will face Democrat Derek Tran, a shopper rights legal professional.
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Mike Garcia, twenty seventh District
First elected to the Home: 2020 particular election
Garcia, a former Navy fighter pilot, has confirmed to be an adept candidate in his northern Los Angeles County-anchored district. In all three of Garcia’s races, together with the Might 2020 particular election triggered by the resignation of Democrat Katie Hill, he defeated former Democratic state lawmaker Christy Smith.
In November 2020, Garcia narrowly defeated Smith by 333 votes out of practically 340,000 ballots solid (a 0.1% edge), however in 2022 he gained by a way more decisive 6 factors.
So the district, which might have voted for Biden by 12 factors underneath its new strains, stays a prime precedence for each events headed into the 2024 elections. Republicans must retain a foothold in suburban districts just like the twenty seventh to have any shot of retaining their majority, whereas Democrats see the district as a key pickup alternative given its bluer lean on the presidential degree.
Democrats — together with early-endorser Smith — are lined up behind George Whitesides, a former NASA chief of employees and onetime Virgin Galactic chief govt.
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Ken Calvert, forty first District
First elected to the Home: 1992
Calvert is the longest-serving California Republican in Congress. A former native GOP county celebration chair, he is represented components of Riverside County in Congress since 1993. His seat spans a number of Coachella Valley cities, together with components of the Inland Empire, together with Corona.
The 15-term incumbent has been a principally dependable vote for GOP management. Calvert was amongst the 147 Republicans who voted to overturn at the very least one state’s election outcomes after the 2020 presidential election.
Calvert gained most of his races by massive margins earlier than redistricting, and he final confronted a very aggressive reelection battle in 2008. However in 2022, Calvert defeated Democrat Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor, by slightly below 5 factors.
Calvert and Rollins will face off in a rematch this fall.
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John Duarte, thirteenth District
First elected to the Home: 2022
Duarte is not only a Republican in what would have been a Biden-won district in 2020. The businessman and pistachio farmer holds a Central Valley seat in one of the vital pro-Biden districts that’s presently held by a Republican.
Home Democrats have been desperate to take pictures at Duarte, together with his choice to help Home Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan’s onetime bid for the speakership. Jordan did not win the speakership, finally paving the best way for Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana.
In 2022, Duarte defeated Democrat Adam Grey, a former state meeting member, by simply 564 votes, in what was one of many closest congressional races within the nation that yr.
Duarte and Grey will face one another once more in November.
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David Valadao, twenty second District
Home tenure: 2013-2019, 2021-present
Valadao was narrowly booted from Congress through the anti-Trump 2018 wave. Two years later, the rich dairy farmer defeated Democratic Rep. TJ Cox in a rematch.
Valadao’s return to Congress was overshadowed by his choice to change into considered one of 10 Home Republicans to vote to question President Donald Trump within the aftermath of the Capitol riot. Not like his colleagues, Valadao grew largely silent after the vote. Consequently, Trump did not practice his ire on the Californian to the extent that he focused the opposite 9 GOP lawmakers.
In 2022, Valadao bested Democrat Rudy Salas, a former state meeting member, by 3 factors.
The congressman will face Salas once more within the common election.
