With President Joe Biden dealing with a troublesome reelection battle in opposition to former President Donald Trump this November, the incumbent Democrat might want to increase his present stage of help to safe reelection.
The president’s reelection problem is much more daunting given his general job approval score is properly beneath 50%, with the incumbent underperforming with essential teams that fueled his 2020 victory, together with younger voters, Black voters, and Latino voters.
However whereas Biden works to shore up his help amongst these key teams, he retains a notable benefit amongst seniors — or voters aged 65 and older.
It is an edge that Trump loved in 2020, in line with the Pew Analysis Heart, when the then-president gained seniors by a 4-point margin (52%-48%) whilst he misplaced the election to Biden.
In the most recent Wall Avenue Journal survey of the highest battleground states (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin), Biden trailed Trump in six of the seven states.
Nonetheless, within the Journal’s most up-to-date nationwide and swing-state polling, Biden’s help amongst seniors has sat at roughly 48%, a uncommon bloc of stability for the president.
Biden, who’ll be 82 firstly of a second time period, could also be in a greater place with seniors than Trump given his deal with points like slicing the worth of insulin and prescription drug prices.
And whereas Biden’s age has been a priority amongst many citizens, it hasn’t contributed to any deterioration in help amongst seniors.
Here is how Biden’s comparatively stable standing with seniors might assist him safe a second time period:
Older voters present up on the polls
The Wall Avenue Journal reported that voters aged 65 and older make up roughly 28% of the citizens.
Within the 2020 election, voters on this group made up about 22% of all voters, in line with exit polling carried out by Edison Analysis.
They usually’re a few of the most constant voters in main races, the place the outcomes typically set the ideological route of the main political events.
Nevertheless it’s their high-propensity voting patterns that might be an underrated profit for Biden in November.
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Within the 2020 presidential election, 74% of voters aged 65 and older went on to forged a poll, in line with the US Census Bureau.
If Biden can construct on his present help with seniors, it might go a good distance for him in Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania, which all have a large share of older voters and retirees and are poised to be determined by razor-thin margins this fall.
The Israel-Hamas warfare is not hurting Biden with seniors
Biden’s dealing with of the Israel-Hamas warfare is without doubt one of the most urgent points amongst younger voters — with many People aged 18 to 29 demanding that the president change course in Gaza by calling for a everlasting cease-fire.
It is a difficulty that has harm Biden’s standing amongst younger voters, who backed him by 24 factors (59% to 35%) in 2020, in line with Pew Analysis, however are backing him by narrower margins in latest polling.
He stays underneath immense stress from antiwar teams and liberal politicians who’re urgent him on the problem and have referred to as on Democratic main voters to pick “uncommitted” in protest.
However in a Pew survey from February, 30% of voters aged 65 and older believed Biden was “hanging the precise steadiness” on the warfare, whereas 23% of respondents believed that he favored Palestinians an excessive amount of, and 13% of respondents felt that he favored Israelis an excessive amount of. (A couple of third of voters aged 65 and older had been uncertain of their opinion.)
A higher proportion of seniors felt that Biden had a extra balanced strategy to the warfare than another age group. As an example, solely 12% of respondents aged 18 to 29 felt that Biden had struck the “proper steadiness” on the problem. (Practically 4-in-10 younger voters felt that Biden’s warfare insurance policies had been too slanted towards Israel, a proportion larger than another age group.)
This is not to say that seniors are a monolith — there are definitely loads of older People calling for a everlasting cease-fire in Gaza.
However the long-standing geopolitical alliance between the USA and Israel is prone to be a extra defining attribute for older voters, with them maybe giving Biden extra deference on the problem given his overseas coverage background that has spanned many years.
