In 2020, it was a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden would win Virginia in that 12 months’s presidential contest.
4 years earlier, Donald Trump misplaced the state to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, at the same time as he captured the White Home. Trump by no means constructed agency political footing in Virginia, and his unpopularity there fueled main Republican losses in state legislative races in 2017 and 2019 — particularly in suburban swing districts.
Biden’s appreciable standing amongst Black voters, independents, and voters aged 18 to 29 buoyed the onetime vice chairman to an enormous 10-point victory over Trump in Virginia in 2020.
However because the 2024 contest enters its essential summer time stretch, current polling reveals Biden and Trump are actually deadlocked in Virginia, a growth that has main implications for each candidates.
Will Biden should spend time campaigning in a state that many he already had within the bag? Is Trump getting a 3rd look from voters who beforehand rejected him twice?
This is a take a look at the state of the race in Virginia, the place Biden holds some vital benefits forward of November:
Why is Biden lagging in Virginia?
The newest Fox Information survey of registered Virginia voters confirmed Biden and Trump tied with 48% assist, whereas Biden held a one-point lead (42% to 41%) when the race included third-party candidates. A Roanoke School ballot taken final month confirmed Biden and Trump tied at 42% assist amongst doubtless voters, with 8% of respondents indicating that they’d again unbiased candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
These numbers symbolize a softening on Biden’s half, as he received 54% of the state’s votes in 2020, in comparison with Trump’s 44%.
Within the Fox Information ballot, Biden had a 42% favorability ranking and a 43% job approval ranking, which align with a lot of his nationwide polling figures. Whereas Virginia has largely trended Democratic lately, Biden’s numbers are a reminder that it’s not a reliably blue state, however one with a blue tinge. (Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin’s election in 2021 displays that.)
AP Picture/Susan Walsh
Whereas Virginia voters give Biden excessive marks on points like local weather change, abortion rights, and election integrity, it’s Trump who comes out on high on points just like the economic system, the Israel-Hamas warfare, and immigration.
Because the latter three points routinely rank as a few of voters’ largest considerations, this has allowed Trump to ballot competitively with Biden in Virginia.
The Fox Information ballot additionally confirmed Trump successful an unusually excessive 25% of Black voters, a determine that if realized would symbolize a contemporary file for a GOP presidential nominee within the state. And the survey confirmed no polling hole between voters aged 18 to 29 and people aged 65 years and older, with the candidates tied at 48% amongst each age teams.
What boosts Biden’s probabilities within the state?
Lately, Democrats have solidified their assist in Virginia’s most populous areas — from Northern Virginia to the Richmond metropolitan space and all the way down to Hampton Roads. These areas comprise scores of suburban communities the place moderates from each events, in addition to independents, typically determine statewide elections.
Many of those voters are inclined to lean towards Biden, given their most up-to-date voting tendencies.
AP Picture/Steve Helber
Within the Fox Information ballot, Biden led Trump amongst independents (45% to 43%) regardless of his diminished standing within the state. And Biden nonetheless retained sturdy majorities from college-educated voters (56%) and suburban girls (58%) — blocs essential for the president and down-ballot Democrats.
And in Northern Virginia — an electoral gold mine for Democrats — Trump stays unpopular. If turnout is excessive within the area, Trump should publish large numbers in rural Virginia and downstate exurbs to win.
Youngkin, in a current Fox Information interview, stated the current polling numbers meant Virginia could be “in play” in November.
However surveys nearer to Labor Day will doubtless provide a clearer sense of the true nature of Virginia’s competitiveness, as many citizens stay tuned out of the election — whereas some who’re at the moment leaning towards third-party candidates might return to Biden’s fold.
