Turkey might deploy its superior Russian S-400 Triumf air defenses on the Iraqi border for its deliberate summer season offensive towards the Kurdistan Staff’ Get together, PKK, in Iraqi Kurdistan. Such a transfer would mark the primary operational deployment of the missile system since Ankara obtained it in 2019 to Western reproach.
Turkiye newspaper reported earlier this month that Turkey’s S-400s could also be deployed on the border, implying it’ll defend towards drones allegedly acquired by the PKK. However the system is efficient towards greater threats than crude drones. It is designed to shoot down cruise and ballistic missiles like these fired by Iran in its unprecedented April 13 assault towards Israel, and its deployment may worsen tensions with different NATO allies incensed that Turkey even has them.
The deal for the S-400 price Turkey an estimated $2.5 billion. Not directly, it has price it way over that in losses of over $9 billion it may have constituted of manufacturing over 900 elements for the worldwide F-35 provide chain.
Washington banned Ankara from shopping for F-35s over considerations it could give Russian technicians knowledge that spoils the fighter’s stealth. On high of all that, the US slapped sanctions on Turkey’s arms procurement company.
Whereas enduring these penalties, Turkey by no means put the S-400 into service. Following the system’s supply, US officers warned Turkey towards “activating” it. Turkey examined its F-16s and F-4 fighters towards the S-400’s radar in late 2019. Washington strongly rebuked Ankara in October 2020 for saying it was testing the system.
Since then, there was no indication that Turkey’s S-400s have been put into operation. In November 2022, then-Protection Minister Hulusi Akar mentioned Ankara has “no issues with the S-400” and that the system “is in place and prepared to be used.”
Its purported upcoming deployment on the Iraqi border could be the primary time Turkish S-400s have been put into use 5 years after Ankara obtained them.
Ali Bakir, a Turkey skilled at Qatar College’s Ibn Khaldon Heart and nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center East Safety Initiative, is skeptical of the report however would not outright dismiss the likelihood.
“This might be a trial balloon, an operational requirement as a result of international menace in Northern Iraq, the place Turkish troops are stationed, or just unfaithful information,” Bakir informed Enterprise Insider. “If the S-400 is deployed for operational wants, it might be to counter the potential menace of Iran’s ballistic missiles.”
Although Turkey’s different air defenses are able to combating aerial threats from the PKK, Turkey requires a sophisticated system for intercepting ballistic missiles fired from Iran.
“Contemplating that Ankara has stationed troops in Northern Iraq, it could be extra logical to deploy such a system to guard them throughout regional escalation or confrontation,” Bakir mentioned. “Iran has used missiles recently towards Northern Iraq.”
Bakir mentioned that the latest missile assaults between Israel and Iran could also be an additional rationale to deploy the S-400 in Turkey’s east.”Such deployment will serve Turkey’s safety in addition to the safety of Iraq, which is enhancing its ties with Ankara recently in an unprecedented method,” Bakir mentioned.
Deploying S-400s as a contingency to counter Iranian missiles may create “a particularly advanced scenario” for Turkey, mentioned Suleyman Ozeren, a lecturer on the American College and senior fellow on the Orion Coverage Institute.”Such a transfer would possibly imply that Turkey could be utilizing the Russian weapon system towards Russia’s most loyal ally within the Center East,” Ozeren informed BI. “Nevertheless, Turkey might use the potential menace of Iran-linked militia teams or PKK as a pretext to deploy S-400s.”
He predicts a deployment would serve three main targets.
“First, the S-400s have been one of the crucial costly but least productive coverage selections,” Ozeren mentioned. “By deploying them and making plenty of noise about it, the AKP might intention to silence critics at residence.”
The AKP is President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s social gathering, which determined to purchase the S-400 within the late 2010s and has defended the contentious buy ever since.
“Second, Ankara might need to show to Moscow that its navy cooperation nonetheless stands,” Ozeren mentioned. “Third, such a choice might intention to ship a message to the West — primarily to the US — that Ankara’s place vis-à -vis Russia and NATO stays unchanged.”
He famous the Turkish S-400 is a “standalone system” incompatible with NATO techniques, limiting its use and confirming its “excessive price and lack of performance.”
A Turkish deployment may escalate the lingering dispute with the US.
In January, then-Performing Deputy Secretary of State Victoria Nuland mentioned Washington may focus on readmitting Ankara into the F-35 program if it resolves the S-400 challenge.
“The issue shouldn’t be about the place Ankara deploys S-400s however concerning the S-400 remaining in Turkey’s possession,” Ozeren mentioned.
Bakir argued that weapons are bought “with the intention of use” for both “offensive or defensive functions.” “Even when Turkey had been to hypothetically commerce the S-400, the US may nonetheless mishandle the case of the F-35,” Bakir mentioned. “There isn’t any assure that Congress is not going to try and stress Ankara sooner or later.”
Ozeren, in distinction, reiterated that the elemental drawback is Ankara’s “purely political” choice to buy S-400s, which he argued was motivated by the AKP’s need to distance Turkey from NATO.
“Such a purpose was unattainable and unrealistic given the extent of Turkey’s integration into the NATO protection system,” Ozeren mentioned. “The S-400 choice has left Ankara in a precarious scenario that has remained unchanged.”
“Regardless of the AKP’s motivations again then, actuality dictates that the ruling social gathering reverse its course and return to a stronger alliance with NATO.”
